First Things First: Important Races in 2005, 2006 and 2007
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              2006 U.S. House...                                              as of Dec. 13, 2006
  109th Congress--229 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent, 4 Vacancies*
  31 retirements or resignations-- 20 Republicans, 10 Democrats, 1 Independent
  2 Members defeated in primaries, 1 Republican and 1 Democrat
  22 Members defeated in general election--22 Republicans, 0 Democrats
  110th Congress--234 Democrats, 200 Republicans  FL-13 still being challenged but likely Republican
   Vacancies on Nov. 6, 2006: NJ-13, TX-22, FL-16, and OH-18.  
   Special elections filled NJ-13 (Sires, D) and TX-22 (Sekula-Gibbs, R) for lame duck session; Sekula-Gibbs for lame duck session only.
   21 Republican incumbents lost on Nov. 7; the 22nd lost the Dec. 12 runoff in TX-23.

55 New Members in the 110th Congress (42 Democrats, 13 Republicans): AZ-5 Harry Mitchell (D), AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords (D); CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D), CA-22 Kevin McCarthy (R); CO-5 Doug Lamborn (R), CO-7 Ed Perlmutter (D); CT-2 Joe Courtney (D), CT-5 Chris Murphy (D); FL-9 Gus Bilirakis (R), FL-11 Kathy Castor (D), FL-13 Vern Buchanan (R)**; FL-16 Tim Mahoney (D), FL-22 Ron Klein (D); GA-4 Hank Johnson (D); HI-2 Mazie Hirono (D); ID-1 Bill Sali (R); IL-6 Peter Roskam (R), IL-17 Phil Hare (D); IN-2 Joe Donnelly (D), IN-8 Brad Ellsworth (D), IN-9 Baron Hill (D); IA-1 Bruce Braley (D), IA-2 Dave Loebsack (D); KS-2 Nancy Boyda (D); KY-3 John Yarmuth (D); MD-3 John Sarbanes (D); MI-7 Tim Walberg (R); MN-1 Tim Walz (DFL); MN-5 Keith Ellison (DFL); MN-6 Michele Bachmann (R); NE-3 Adrian Smith (R); NV-2 Dean Heller (R); NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter (D), NH-2 Paul Hodes (D); NJ-13 Albio Sires (D)*; NY-11 Yvette Clarke (D), NY-19 John Hall (D), NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand (D), NY-24 Michael Arcuri (D); NC-11 Heath Shuler (D);  OH-4 Jim Jordan (R), OH-6 Charlie Wilson (D), OH-13 Betty Sutton (D); OH-18 Zack Space (D); OK-5 Mary Fallin (R); PA-4 Jason Altmire (D), PA-7 Joe Sestak (D), PA-8 Patrick Murphy (D), PA-10 Chris Carney (D); TN-1 David Davis (R), TN-9 Steve Cohen (D); TX-22 Nick Lampson (D), TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez (D); VT-AL Peter Welch (D); WI-8 Steve Kagen (D).  As noted above Sires (NJ-13) served in the lame duck session of the 109th.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee

U.S. House
Balance as of Nov. 6, 2006: Republicans 229 seats, Democrats 201 seats, Independent 1 (generally votes Dem.), and 4 vacancies (NJ-13, TX-22, FL-16, and OH-18)
Defeated on Nov. 7
Republicans (21): J.D. Hayworth (AZ-5; Northeast Maricopa County including Tempe and Scottsdale); Richard Pombo (CA-11; parts of San Joaquin, Alameda, Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties); Rob Simmons (CT-2; the Eastern 40% of the state);  Nancy Johnson (CT-5; Northwest Connecticut); Clay Shaw (FL-22; a very thin district running from Jupiter and Juno Beach in Palm Beach County to Fort Lauderdale in Broward County); Chris Chocola (IN-2; includes South Bend); John Hostettler (IN-8; Western Indiana from Evansville in the South to Warren County in the North); Mike Sodrel (IN-9; Southeast Indiana along the Ohio River); Jim Leach (IA-2; Southeast Iowa including Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Burlington, Ottumwa); Jim Ryun (KS-2; 26 counties in the Eastern part of the state); Ann Northup (KY-3; Louisville); Gil Gutknecht (MN-1; Southern Minn.-a strip right across the bottom of state); Jeb Bradley (NH-1; the Southeast 1/3 of the state); Charlie Bass (NH-2; West and North New Hampshire); Sue Kelly (NY-19; much of the Hudson Valley region); John Sweeney (NY-20; all or parts of 10 counties in Eastern NY); Charles Taylor (NC-11; Western tip of the state); Melissa Hart (PA-4; Southwest Pennsylvania; parts of Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Lawrence, Westmoreland and Mercer Counties); Curt Weldon (PA-7; Southwest of Philadelphia, including most of Delaware County, SW Montgomery County and E. Chester County); Michael Fitzpatrick (PA-8; Bucks County, parts of Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia); Don Sherwood (PA-10; Northeast Pennsylvania).  Defeated in Dec. 12 runoff Republican (1): Henry Bonilla (TX-23; a huge district in SW Texas along the border with Mexico).

Retirements, Resignations, and Primary Defeats

  • Generally speaking open seats offer a somewhat greater opportunity for pickups by the opposing party.

    • Running for Senate (7):
    Democrats (4): Sherrod Brown (OH-13; Akron area, Northeastern Ohio); Ed Case (HI-2; part of Oahu and the other Islands); Benjamin Cardin (MD-3; Baltimore area); Harold Ford Jr. (TN-9; Memphis).
    Independent (1): Bernie Sanders (Ind.-VT).
    Republicans (2): Katherine Harris (FL-13; Sarasota); Mark Kennedy (MN-6; six counties East/Central Minnesota).

    Running for Governor (9):
    Democrats (2): Jim Davis (FL-11; Tampa); Ted Strickland (OH-6; eleven counties along Eastern border).
    Republicans (7): Bob Beauprez (CO-7; Denver area; portions of Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe Counties); Jim Gibbons (NV-2; Reno); Mark Green (WI-8; Northeast Wisconsin); Ernest Istook (OK-5; includes Oklahoma City); Jim Nussle (IA-1; twelve counties in Eastern Iowa inc. Scott, Black Hawk, and Dubuque); Tom Osborne (NE-3; all of Western Nebraska); Butch Otter (ID-1).

    Retiring (11):
    Democrat (3): Lane Evans (IL-17; Rock Island); Major Owens (NY-11; Brooklyn); Martin Sabo (MN-5, Minneapolis).
    Republicans (8): Michael Bilirakis (FL-9; Tarpon Springs); Sherwood Boehlert (NY-24; Upstate); Bill Jenkins (TN-1; Eastern Tennessee); Joel Hefley (CO-5; Colorado Springs); Henry Hyde (IL-6; part of Cook and Dupage Counties); Jim Kolbe (AZ-8; Southeast corner); Mike Oxley (OH-4; central including Mansfield, Lima, Findlay); Bill Thomas (CA-22; Bakersfield).

    Also (4):
    Democrat (1): Robert Menendez (NJ-13; parts of Hudson, Essex, Union and Middlesex counties) appointed U.S. Senator.
    Republican (3): Tom DeLay (TX-22; parts of Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, and Harris Counties) resigned effective June 9, 2006; Mark Foley (FL-16; Port Charlotte, Lake Okeechobee, Port St Lucie) resigned Sept. 29, 2006 due to a sex scandal; Bob Ney (OH-18; 16 counties in eastern and southern Ohio) won the May 2, 2006 primary but on Aug. 7 announced he would not seek re-election...pleaded guilty on Oct. 13...resigned effective Nov. 3.
    *Tom DeLay won the March 7, 2006 primary but on April 3, facing money laundering charges, announced his resignation from Congress effective June 9.  The Republican Party of Texas then declared him ineligible on the grounds that he had changed his residence to Virginia.  Republicans were set to name his replacement for the November ballot, but Texas Democrats filed a lawsuit to prevent that; the Democratic state chair termed the maneuver "a manipulation of election law and most importantly, a sham attempt to circumvent the primary process and ignore voters in the 22nd Congressional District."   In July U.S. District Court Judge Sam Sparks ruled that the Republican Party of Texas could not replace DeLay’s name on the ballot.  On Aug. 3, a panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the District Court ruling. Texas Republicans then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, but Justice Antonin Scalia rejected their request on Aug. 7.  Sekula-Gibbs (R) ran as a write-in candidate.

    Defeated in Primary (2):
    Democrat (1): Cynthia McKinney (GA-4; most of DeKalb County and the southwest portion of Gwinnett County) defeated by DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson in Aug. 8, 2006 runoff election.
    Republican (1): Joe Schwarz (MI-7; Branch, Eaton, Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee and parts of Washtenaw and Calhoun counties) defeated by former State Rep. Tim Walberg in the Aug. 8, 2006 primary.

    Not Retiring: In March 2006 Elton Gallegly (CA-24; Simi Valley) announced his retirement then reversed himself.
     

  • On Aug. 4, 2006, a three-judge panel in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas issued an order redrawing the boundaries of congressional districts 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28 and voiding the results of the March 3 primary in those districts.  This is a consequence of controversial mid-cycle Texas redistricting adopted by the Texas Legislature in 2003 which resulted in Republicans picking up new U.S. House seats in 2004.  On Dec. 12, 2005 the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to consider four appeals; the four cases were consolidated into one, and the Court proceeded on an expedited basis.  Two hours of oral argument took place March 1, 2006.  In LULAC v. Perry, handed down on June 28, the Court generally upheld the redistricting map with the exception of the changes to the 23rd CD (a huge district in SW Texas along the border of Mexico held by Rep. Henry Bonilla (R)) which violated the federal Voting Rights Act.  The matter then went to the District Court which came out with its order on Aug. 4.  The important consequence of this was that there was an open primary in the 23rd CD and several other districts on Nov. 7; in the 23rd CD no candidate won a majority and there was a runoff in December between the top two vote-getters.

    • Texas Legislative Council: Texas Redistricting
    Lone Star Fund (PAC): Lone Star Project
     

    2005-06 Special Elections
    Texas-22nd CD: Nov. 7, 2006 special election to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Tom DeLay (R) for the period through January 2007, when the winner of the general election balloting will be sworn in.  Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) sworn in Nov. 13, 2006 to serve out lame duck session.

    New Jersey-13th CD: Primary June 6, 2006; General Nov. 7, 2006 to replace Rep. Robert Menendez (D) who was appointed U.S. Senator after Sen. Jon Corzine was sworn in as Governor on January 17, 2005. Albio Sires (D) sworn in Nov. 13, 2006 to serve out lame duck session.
     

    California-50th CD: Primary April 11, 2006; General June 6, 2006 to replace Rep. Randy Cunningham (R) who resigned effective December 1, 2005 due to bribery scandal.
    Francine Busby (D)  45% Brian P. Bilbray (R)  49%

    California-48th CD: Primary Oct. 4, 2005; General Dec. 6, 2005 to replace Rep. Chris Cox (R) who resigned effective August 2, 2005 to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
    Steve Young (D)   25,926 (28.0%)
    Béa Tiritilli (G)   1,242 (1.3%)    		 John Campbell (R)   41,450 (44.7%)
    Jim Gilchrist (AIP)   23,237 (25.1%)
    Bruce Cohen (L)   880 (0.9%)      ...total ballots cast 93,138

    Ohio-2nd CD: Primary June 14, 2005; General Aug. 2, 2005 to replace Rep. Rob Portman (R) who resigned effective April 29, 2005 to become U.S. Trade Representative.
    Paul Hackett (D)  55,886 (48.35%) Jean Schmidt (R)   59,671 (51.63%)
    ...total 115,576

    California-5th CD: Primary March 8, 2005 to succeed Rep. Bob Matsui (D) who died Jan. 1, 2005. Doris Matsui (D) won 69% of the vote.
     
     

    Resources
    The Cook Political Report
    National Journal House rankings
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
    Races to Watch

    Campaign Finance
    -The Campaign Finance Institute reported that, "It took more than $1.1 million to win a House seat in 2006."  CFI also notes the increasing importance of the party committees.  [press release]

    -The FEC reported on Nov. 2, 2006 that through mid-October, "House general election candidates’ fundraising increased 25% over 2004 levels to a total of $678.6 million.  Spending by these candidates totaled $546.2 million, up 30%."  [press release]

    -The FEC reported on Oct. 30, 2006 that through 20 days defore the general election the DCCC had made independent expenditures of $46.1 million in congressional races and the NRCC $70.8 million.  The DCCC had receipts of $107.98 million and the NRCC receipts of $152.37 million. [press release]
     
     
     
     
     

    Copyright © 2005, 2006  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action