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Notes from 2005-06 2005-06 Photos: "Granite State Happenings"

Main New Hampshire Primary Page

Defending the Primary
The Democratic National Committee, after a lengthy process that started following the 2004 campaign and ran through August 2006, decided to add two additional early contests to its 2008 presidential nominating calendar.  New Hampshire political leaders mounted a spirited defense of the first-in-the-nation primary throughout the Democrats' deliberations.  In a July 20, 2006 letter to members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch warned, "Placing another state’s caucus or primary between Iowa and New Hampshire, or placing another state within a week following New Hampshire, could put New Hampshire and the DNC on a collision course, resulting in chaos for the nominating process."  Lynch wrote of New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, "You should assume that he will move up New Hampshire’s primary date, perhaps even ahead of Iowa, if he determines it is necessary to uphold New Hampshire law."  Gardner will set the date of New Hampshire's primary in the latter part of 2007.  Gov. Lynch, in an August 19, 2006 press release, announced that he had "received written commitments from 10 potential Democratic presidential candidates that they will participate in the New Hampshire primary on whatever date the Secretary of State sets."  Ultimately a situation could arise where the DNC does not recognize New Hampshire's delegates.
 

Gov. John Lynch in Nov 30, 2005 letter to DNC Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling: "...New Hampshire will take whatever steps are necessary to preserve its state law and traditional role in the nominating process. "New Hampshire has the first primary because it was the first state to take the presidential nominating process out of smoke-filled backrooms and put the decision directly into the hands of voters.  It is a tradition and a responsibility the people of this state take seriously."

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New Hampshire Visits Per Month
2006
11 Republican prospects made a total of 37 visits totaling 46 days.  Gov. George Pataki made the most visits, nine, followed by Gov. Mitt Romney with eight; Sen. John McCain tallied four visits; Sen. Bill Frist, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Gov. Mike Huckabee three each; and Sen. George Allen, Sen. Sam Brownback, Sen. Chuck Hagel and Rep. Duncan Hunter made one visit each.  13 Democratic prospects made a total of 47 visits totaling 73 days.  Sen. Joe Biden led with 8 visits, Sen. John Edwards and Sen. John Kerry made 6 each, Sen. Evan Bayh 5, Gov. Bill Richardson and former Gov. Mark Warner 4, Gov. Tom Vilsack Sen. Chris Dodd and Gen. Wesley Clark 3, Sen. Russ Feingold 2, Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. Tom Daschle and Rev. Al Sharpton 1.

Jan. '06	Feb. '06	Mar. '06	Apr. '06	May '06	June '06	July '06	Aug. '06	Sept. '06	Oct. '06	Nov. '06	Dec. '06
3	4	8	6	6	7.5	1.5	8	12.5	13.5	5.5	8.5
ROMNEY	FRIST ROMNEY HUCKABEE	ROMNEY HAGEL ALLEN HUCKABEE	McCAIN GINGRICH BROWNBACK PATAKI	PATAKI McCAIN	PATAKI		PATAKI HUCKABEE PATAKI FRIST PATAKI	McCAIN ROMNEY ROMNEY ROMNEY >	< ROMNEY PATAKI GIULIANI FRIST HUNTER McCAIN GIULIANI	GIULIANI PATAKI ROMNEY GINGRICH	PATAKI GINGRICH ROMNEY
FEINGOLD SHARPTON	WARNER	KERRY RICHARDSON CLARK BAYH	EDWARDS KERRY	BIDEN KERRY CLARK EDWARDS	FEINGOLD WARNER DASCHLE BAYH VILSACK BIDEN BIDEN>	<BIDEN BIDEN	RICHARDSON EDWARDS WARNER	EDWARDS BIDEN BIDEN KERRY DODD VILSACK WARNER BAYH RICHARDSON	KERRY DODD KERRY BIDEN CLARK DODD BAYH	EDWARDS VILSACK >	< VILSACK BAYH OBAMA RICHARDSON BIDEN EDWARDS

2005
9 Republican prospects made a total of 21 visits totaling 29 days.  Gov. Mitt Romney made the most visits, four, but his travel during these trips was limited.  Sen. Bill Frist, Sen. George Allen and Rep. Tom Tancredo all made three visits; former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Sen. Sam Brownback and Gov. George Pataki each made two visits.  Gov. Mike Huckabee made only one visit, but his schedule was jam-packed; Sen. Chuck Hagel likewise made only one visit, but that covered parts of three days.  Sen. John McCain and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani steered clear of the Granite State.  8 potential Democratic candidates made a total of 13 visits totaling 20 days.  Sen. John Edwards led all prospects with four visits totaling seven days.

Jan. '05	Feb. '05	Mar. '05	Apr. '05	May '05	June '05	July '05	Aug. '05	Sept. '05	Oct. '05	Nov. '05	Dec. '05
0	2	2	2	2	6	2	3	2.5	6.5	3	3
	TANCREDO	FRISTx2	BROWNBACK GINGRICH	HAGEL ALLEN	ROMNEY TANCREDO ALLEN		ROMNEY HUCKABEE	ROMNEY TANCREDO	GINGRIGH BROWNBACK ALLEN PATAKI		FRIST ROMNEY PATAKI
	EDWARDS				RICHARDSON CLARK EDWARDS	BAYH EDWARDS	KERRY	FEINGOLD>	<FEINGOLD EDWARDS BAYH	BIDEN KERRY WARNER

A Sampling of Early Speeches (2005)
At this stage of the process there are no announced candidates, only prospective candidates.  Mainly they are speaking at events organized by the state party or by county parties.  To  a lesser degree they make appearances in non-political settings, for example speaking at a college or university.  Note that public events generally comprise only part of potential candidates' schedules, which also include various interviews and private meetings.

It is interesting to consider the approaches prospective candidates take and the themes they address in their early or introductory speeches.  First off there is usually praise for local officials.  Oftentimes they try to establish a connection to New Hampshire.  A dash of humor is always a good way to connect to the audience.  They discuss the issues of the day and their accomplishments.  Another element to consider is the amount of partisan rhetoric; Democrats include greater or lesser degrees of criticism of President Bush, and the Republicans more or less praise.  Words of support for the first in the nation New Hampshire primary are a sure way to win applause.  Here is a sampling of speeches from 2005; given the different audiences, lengths and dates they are not strictly comparable but they do give a sense of the themes these individuals might develop if they do become candidates.

DEMOCRATS
WARNER - NH Senate Democratic Caucus lunch in Manchester, Nov. 18.
BAYH - NH Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner fundraiser in Manchester, Oct. 29.
FEINGOLD - Rockingham County Democrats' first annual Eleanor Roosevelt Covered Dish Dinner at Epping, Sept. 30.
CLARK - Manchester City Democratic Committee's annual Flag Day dinner, June 12.
RICHARDSON - "Politics and Eggs" breakfast in Bedford, June 7.  [non-partisan event]
EDWARDS - NH Democratic Party's 100 Club Dinner in Manchester, Feb. 5.

REPUBLICANS
PATAKI - NH Republican Party Christmas Party Christmas Party in Concord, Dec. 14.
HUCKABEE - Strafford  County Republican Picnic/Pig Roast in Dover, Aug. 27.
ALLEN - NH Federation of Republican Women's Lilac Luncheon in Manchester, June 25.
ROMNEY - NH Federation of Republican Women's Lilac Dinner in Manchester, June 3.
HAGEL - "Politics and Eggs" breakfast in Bedford, May 4.  [non-partisan event]
FRIST - Manchester Republican Committee Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, March 5.

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Advertising with Impact
Because of the attention given to New Hampshire, the effect of even a small ad buy is often magnified manyfold by national media coverage.  Already there have been several tiny -- microscopic might be a better word -- ad buys in NH by advocates of several presidential prospects and by interest groups seeking to influence presidential prospects or at least draw attention to specific issues.

-Americans for Dr. Rice ran a TV ad on WMUR-TV in NH on Sept. 27, 2005 during the premiere of ABC's "Commander in Chief."  Americans for Rice supplemented the $4,000 buy with $1,000 on radio ads promoting the show.

-On Aug. 29, 2005 the Club for Growth began running TV ads "encouraging Death Tax repeal in targeted states across the U.S.  One of the ads tells New Hampshire viewers that Arizona Sen. John McCain wants to keep the Death Tax.  Other ads are running in Montana, Washington, North Dakota and Oregon..."

 
-The week of Aug. 1, 2005, NARAL Pro-Choice NY ran a TV spot highlighting Gov. George Pataki's veto of the Unintended Pregnancy Prevention Act (A.116/S3661) and charging that his move is a flip-flop motivated by 2008 presidential ambitions. "Hail to the Chief" ran in Manchester, NH on WMUR-TV (50 GRPs) as well as in Iowa (200 GRPs total-Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Sioux City) and New York.

 
-HillaryNow.com ran a cartoon TV ad "Hillary Cleans Up Bush's Mess" on late-night cable in Southern NH on Aug. 2-4, 2005.  According to PoliticsNH.com's James Pindell the buy was $264 for 55 spots.

 
-Coinciding with Gov. Bill Richardson's visit to NH on June 7-8, 2005, the NM GOP ran a radio ad "Lifestyles of the Rich and Shameless" critical of Richardson.  The ad ran several times on three high profile radio stations for one day.

 
-Americans for Dr. Rice ran three radio spots on WNTK AM 1020 (New London/Upper Valley) and WKXL AM 1450 (Concord) starting May 12, 2005.  The group also ran radio ads on WKAT AM 1360 in Miami.  Americans for Dr. Rice founder Richard Mason MD provided some observations on the NH buy. "WNTK was very helpful and did an excellent job of arranging for the production of the "breakfast table" spot after we had some disappointing experiences with other studios and stations.  We used those two stations since they had a news/talk format which we thought would be a better audience for us at this point.  I haven't separated it out, but we spent approximately $2500 on radio at that time with the bulk of it going to WNTK and WKXL.  The ads ran for 6 weeks between the two stations."  Asked why the group decided to run the ads in May, Mason responded, "That was the soonest we could get it on the air!  We wanted to see what type of response we got.  Although it wasn't a fund-raising 'bonanza,' it did generate a fair number of responses to the website and added to our e-mailing list for the future."  [Aug. 2005 email from Richard Mason]

Also note:
On July 27, 2005 StemPAC announced plans to run an ad in NH targeting Sen. Bill Frist for "his obstructionist position on stem cell research.”  The ad was supposed to start running on July 28.  As soon as Frist made his announcement of his new position on the morning of July 29, StemPAC started pulling the ad.  StemPAC founder John Hlinko states, "It is possible that it may have ran Thursday night on some of the cable stations, but the far larger part of the buy had definitely not yet begun."  Hlinko added, "But the impending ad was covered for sure in Hotline on Wed and Thurs, as well as National Journal.  So, suffice to say, even if it hadn't run, the word was out for sure among the inside the beltway community, and we assume -- Senator Frist's office."
 

Mayoral Race Draws Attention
Seeking re-election on Nov. 8, 2005, two-term Manchester Mayor Bob Baines (D) faced Alderman Frank Guinta (R).  Gov. Pataki campaigned with Frank Guinta.  Sens. Feingold, Bayh, Biden, and Kerry appeared with Baines. Guinta won in an upset.
 

Lining Up Squarely Behind New Hampshire

First question at the Rockingham County Democrats' First Annual Eleanor Roosevelt Covered Dish Dinner in Epping, NH on Sept. 30, 2005: Gary Patton:  Now Senator Feingold, if you know anything about New Hampshire, you can predict what the first question is going to be.  [laughter].  If you decide to run for president, are you committed to the [audience joins in] FIRST IN THE NATION NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY?  [laughter, applause]. Sen. Feingold:  I tell you I think one of the most wonderful things in American politics is what you do here having the first primary.  We like to talk about Wisconsin being a laboratory of democracy.  When it comes to presidential politics this is the laboratory for democracy and I can't imagine a scenario where we'd want to change that.  Of course the first primary should be in New Hampshire.  [applause]. Gary Patton:  Okay, put away the tar and feathers, folks...

Sen. Chuck Hagel's opening comment to Politics & Eggs Breakfast in Bedford, NH on May 4, 2005: Sen. Hagel:  It is true I took another difficult stand--tough position--straight off the top supporting the New Hampshire primary as first in the nation.  That's my trademark.  Handle the big issues right up front.  [laughter].  I did wrestle with it, but I finally came down on what I thought was right for America [laughter] and the world really.  [laughter].  I think maybe even the universe."

Gov. George Pataki at NH Republican Party Christmas Party in Concord, NH on Dec. 14, 2005: Gov. Pataki:  We understand the importance of our American political system and the fact that the New Hampshire primary has to be number one and has to be undiminished in its importance.  [cheers, applause].  Let us fight to keep that, and let the Democrats say no.  [laughter].

Gov. Bill Richardson at Politics & Eggs Breakfast in Bedford, NH on June , 2005: Gov. Richardson:  ...it came up early on about New Hampshire being first or whatever in the primary system.  There's a debate on that issue.  I hope to talk to you a little bit about it a little later, but being from New Mexico I want you to know that I believe very strongly in the idea of a Western primary.  And I'm not going to compromise on this.  Here's my position.  You might not agree, but it seems to me only fair that the people of Keene have as much voice as the people of Manchester.  [laughter, applause]. later... But this is grassroots politics, this is what you're about, this is when  you require all these big shots to come in the living rooms and look 'em in the eye and tell 'em do you care about me despite the resume?  What are you going to do about helping this country and this state?  And this is why this tradition of the ability to look a voter in the eye and tell 'em where you stand, this is why New Hampshire is so important and this is why you should oppose any attempts to change that.  And there are going to be fights there--I mean the Michigan people and you've got some in the Midwest.  All we want in the West, we're going to support you and we've got some people in our Commission: New Hampshire number one.  But you know right after that you know the Western primary, maybe at midnight--  No, just kidding.  [laughter].  Maybe a few days later.  No, no, just a few days later; don't get excited.  Because I think it's important that you have that.

Gov. Mark Warner at NH Senate Democratic Caucus Lunch in Manchester, NH on Nov. 18, 2005: Gov. Warner:  ... it is a great honor for me to be here in New Hampshire, the state that has always had and should always have the first primary in the nation.  [applause].  Because the one thing I think I figured out not only here but when I visited Iowa a couple of times on NGA business during the summer, is there is a special, and I see it here today, a special sense of stewardship and responsibility and I thank you for that stewardship, and I look forward to making sure that we continue this conversation.