To:       Interested Parties
From:   RNC
Date:    6/3/2008
RE:       Democrat Disunity

 
Following all the uncertainty surrounding Barack Obama’s path to becoming the presumptive Democrat nominee, Obama is now faced with two very clear certainties as he “wheeze[s]”, as The New York Times puts it, across the finish line.  First, he will inherit a fractured party that is deeply divided over his role as standard-bearer and his ability to be President.  Second, he will inherit a national party apparatus that has been significantly outraised throughout the cycle.

Here are the facts: 

• Nearly 18 million voters in the Democrat Party’s nominating process felt that Obama was not the best candidate to be President.  The number of ballots cast against Obama in 2008 exceeds the number of total ballots cast in each of the last four Democrat Presidential primary cycles.

• Obama is not wearing well as a candidate and has lost momentum since his high point in February.  The more people learn about him and his views, the less they support him.  Since March 4, he has lost a majority of primaries to Senator Clinton, including the all-important states of Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and West Virginia.  He lost Kentucky by 35 points, West Virginia by 41 points, and suffered a 36-point defeat in Puerto Rico.  Were it not for the Democratic proportional system of delegate allocation, these devastating defeats might very well have derailed his nomination.  

• Obama has failed in key battleground states.  States like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia are critical to success in the fall, and Democrat voters there felt that he was not the best candidate for their Party or the office.  Furthermore, his failure to seriously compete in Florida and Michigan has left Democrat voters there skeptical of his commitment to them.

• Obama will not be able in the general election to count on many of the states that fueled his primary campaign.  Recent public polling shows Obama losing to John McCain in at least half of the states that he won in the Democrat primaries. 

• Obama faces difficulties defending key states that were won by John Kerry and Al Gore in the last two Presidential elections.  Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are each polling competitively or in favor of McCain, as is New Hampshire, which voted in favor of John Kerry in 2004. 

• McCain is attracting large numbers of Democrat voters, which significantly undermines Obama’s base.  The most recent Newsweek poll (5/23) shows 19% of Democrats favoring McCain over Obama, and 7% undecided.  By contrast, Obama only attracts 7% of GOP voters, with only 4% undecided. 

Partisan Support for John McCain and Barack Obama

                                                                                     Source:  Newsweek Poll, 5/23

• According to May data from Rasmussen Reports, one quarter of Democrats trust McCain more than Obama on the issues of the Economy (25%) and National Security (28%) – as compared to only 13% and 7% of Republicans (respectively) who trust Obama more.   Similarly, less than two thirds of Democrats trust Obama more on the issues of the war in Iraq (66%) and Taxes (64%). 

• A recent poll by Pew in May shows that fewer than half (46%) of Clinton supporters expect the Democrat party to “unite solidly behind” Obama – down from 58% in March.

• Obama’s primary election coalition of urban voters, young voters, ideologically liberal voters, and elites is far too narrow to sustain him amid a center-right general election electorate.  His coalition more resembles the losing coalitions of John Kerry, Michael Dukakis, and George McGovern than it does a supposedly new type of candidate with broad appeal. 

• Many key constituencies that are necessary for a winning coalition in November have voted overwhelmingly against Obama in the Democrat primaries.  Obama has time and time again failed to connect with rural voters, union voters, Catholic voters, senior voters, Hispanic voters, and women.

Key constituencies voting against Obama in the primaries:

Source:  2008 CNN Exit Polling

• Despite raising a record amount of money in the primaries, Obama has also spent the most of any candidate to get to this point.  Together with the DNC he will begin the next phase of the campaign with less cash on hand than Senator McCain’s campaign and the RNC.

• The DNC itself faces nearly a 9:1 cash-on-hand disadvantage versus the RNC. 

And this leads us to the DNC rules committee meeting on Saturday when the Democrat party leadership again failed to promote the unity that their party desperately lacks.   Howard Dean’s fractious meeting of party elders seems a fitting exclamation point to this year’s Democrat primary season.

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