RNC 100 Days Out Memo

MEMO from the Republican National Committee

To: RNC National Committee Members

Fr: RNC Strategy

Re: Nearly 100 Days To Go

Date: July 25, 2008

Despite the most challenging environment for Republicans in years and an overwhelming advantage in attention paid by the media, Barack Obama remains unable to open the lead against John McCain that many pundits predicted.

With nearly 100 days remaining until Election Day, very little separates the two candidates.

The Rasmussen daily tracking polling has shown the race within a margin of 1%-4% for the last seven days. When voters leaning toward a candidate are included, this margin has existed for over two weeks. July 24^th Gallup tracking shows the race within two points.

While the national press seems to view Obama more favorably, covering him well over twice as often on network newscasts, voters nationally give higher marks to John McCain. As of July 22^nd, more voters (57%) viewed McCain favorably than Obama (55%), while 44% viewed Obama unfavorably as compared to 40% for McCain.

In addition to having secured his base, the most recent polls show Senator McCain even or leading among critical independent voters.

In this week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, voters overwhelmingly said that John McCain is more knowledgeable and better experienced to handle the presidency – by a 34% margin (53%-19%). Voters express this in other ways as well; with 50% saying that Barack Obama must choose a running-mate to bolster his experience in military and foreign affairs, and 42% saying he needs to select an expert on the economy to bolster his experience there.

In the same WSJ/NBC poll, McCain also scores higher on showing strong leadership (+11), sharing the values of voters (+11), standing up for his beliefs (+8), being honest and straightforward (+4), and being a good Commander-in-Chief (+28).

Since becoming the presumptive nominee, Obama has yet to gain the confidence of the American people in his readiness to be President, and is viewed as a “risky choice” by a majority (55%) of the electorate.

In critical battleground states, leads that opened for Barack Obama after he became the presumptive nominee are evaporating, including several states that were “blue” in 2004.

The most recent survey in Michigan from The Detroit News shows the race in a statistical dead heat at 43%-41% with 12% yet undecided.

Quinnipiac polling released on July 24^th shows that Barack Obama’s lead has shrunk to 2 points in Minnesota and that John McCain is again leading in Colorado.

In the all-important battleground of Ohio, the latest Rasmussen survey in Ohio shows John McCain opening a 10-point lead.

This week, RNC Chairman Robert M. “Mike” Duncan, John McCain 2008 Political Director Mike DuHaime, and RNC Political Director Rich Beeson embarked on a state-by-state swing through these battleground states to solidify the Victory operations that will help deliver the presidency to Senator McCain. Hundreds of offices have been opened and thousands of volunteers are calling their peers and knocking on the doors of their neighbors. Fundraising is far healthier for the RNC than it is for the DNC, with a 3-1 fundraising advantage in 2008 and 15-1 cash-on-hand advantage today. Together, with John McCain as our leader, the Republican ground game is in full swing.

And while Barack Obama has taken a last-minute trip abroad to compensate for his relative inexperience in foreign affairs, voters are seeing John McCain dealing with the difficult issues confronting Americans at home. The bump Obama may receive from increased exposure due to his trip abroad will be temporary as it becomes clear he still has no real solutions to solve America’s pressing energy and economic challenges.

Barack Obama’s pandering and reversals on issues will continue to remind voters why they trust John McCain more to be our next leader. Voters will not take a risk on an unproven and untested candidate like Obama. Given all of the challenges our country faces in the next four years, Americans will turn to Senator McCain, a proven leader who is ready to be Commander in Chief from day one.

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