A Tale of Two Elections
Based on official results from state election offices as reported by the Federal Election Commission.
In 2004, President Bush carried 31 states to 19 and DC for Sen. Kerry.  He won the electoral vote by 286 to 252; if Kerry had won Ohio he would have prevailed.  122.3 million people voted in the presidential contest and Bush amassed a plurality of 3,000,176 votes (2.45 percentage point) over Kerry.   In 2008, Sen. Obama carried 28 states, Nebraska's 2nd CD and DC, winning 365 electoral votes to 173 for McCain.  Nine states which went for Bush-Cheney in 2004 shifted to the Democratic column in 2008.  (McCain would have had to have carried the closest seven of those to win).  131.3 million people voted in the presidential contest, and Obama's plurality was 9,522,083 votes (7.26 percentage points).
Margin of Victory in Percent State by State in 2004 and 2008



B U S H  2 0 0 4
M c C A I N




O B A M A
K E R R Y  2 0 0 4
(46)  7
5
20
5
9
IA-0.67
NM-0.79
OH-2.11
NV-2.59
CO-4.67
 . MO-0.14
MT-2.26
 (14) 11
3
0-5.0%
 (73) 15
11
27
20
NC-0.32*
IN-1.04*
FL-2.81*
OH-4.54*
 . WI-0.38
NH-1.37
PA-2.50
MI-3.42
MN-3.48
OR-4.16
 (68)  10
4
21
17
9
7
(57) 27
11
13
6
FL-5.01
MO-7.20
VA-8.20
AR-9.76
 . GA-5.21
SD-8.41
AZ-8.52
ND-8.63
SC-8.97
 (39) 15
3
10
3
8
5.01-10.0%
 (33) 13
9
7
4
VA-6.30*
CO-8.95*
IA-9.54*
NH-9.61
. NJ-6.68
WA-7.18
DE-7.60
HI-8.75
ME-8.99
CA-9.95
 (92)  15
11
3
4
4
55
(50) 10
15
5
11
9
AZ-10.47
NC-12.43
WV-12.86
TN-14.27
LA-14.50
 . TX-11.77
WV-13.12
MS-13.18
NE-14.93
KS-14.96
 (55) 34
5
6
4 (1)
6
10.01-15.0%
 (46) 10
21
5
10
MN-10.24
PA-10.32
NV-12.50*
WI-13.91
. IL-10.34
CT-10.36
MD-12.98
 (38)  21
7
10
(37) 15
8
6
8
GA-16.30
SC-17.08
MS-18.85
KY-19.86
 . TN-15.07
KY-16.23
LA-18.63
AR-19.86
 (34) 11
8
9
6
15.01-20.0%
 (59) 5
15
7
17
11
4
NM-15.13*
NJ-15.57
OR-16.35
MI-16.47
WA-17.17
ME-17.33
. NY-18.29
 (31)  31
(51)  3
11
3
34
MT-20.50
IN-20.68
SD-21.47
TX-22.86
 . AK-21.53
AL-21.58
(12) 3
9
20.01-25.0%
 (65) 7
55
3
CT-22.37
CA-24.06
DE-24.99
. VT-20.14
RI-20.75
 (7)  3
4
(45)  6
3
9
3
7
5
4
3
5
KS-25.38
AK-25.55
AL-25.62
ND-27.36
OK-31.14
NE-33.22
ID-38.12
WY-39.79
UT-45.54
 . ID-25.43
UT-28.17
OK-31.30
WY-32.23
 (19) 4
5
7
3
25.01%+
 (88) 21
10
12
31
4
3
4
3
IL-25.14
MD-25.45
MA-25.81
NY-26.69
RI-27.80
VT-37.01
HI-45.27
DC-85.93
. MA-25.16
DC-79.84
 (15)  12
3
Note: Obama won one of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes, carrying the 2nd CD.

In which states did Obama improve upon the Democratic margin relative to Kerry in 2004 and where McCain improve upon Bush's margin?
Obama improved upon the Kerry margins in 45 states and DC; the biggest improvements were in Indiana and Hawaii.  McCain improved upon the Bush margins in five states; the biggest improvement occurred in Arkansas.
Change in Margin (Percentage Points) 2008 Compared to 2004

 20.0+
 15.0-19.99
 10.0-14.99
 5.0-9.99
 0-4.99
 0-4.99
 5.0-9.99
 10.0-14.99
 15.0-19.99
 20.0+



AR (10.10)
OK (0.16)
WV (0.26)
TN (0.80)
LA (4.13)
 MA (0.65)
AZ (1.95)
KY (3.63)
AK (4.02)
AL (4.04)
 MS (5.67)
DC (6.09)
OH (6.65)*
MN (6.76)
RI (7.05)
MO (7.06)
WY (7.56)
PA (7.82)
FL (7.82)*
SC (8.11)
NH (8.24)
ME (8.34)
NY (8.40)
NJ (8.89)
WA (9.99)
 IA (10.21)*
KS (10.42)
CT (11.01)
GA (11.09)
TX (11.09)
OR (12.19)
MD (12.47)
ID (12.69)
NC (12.75)*
MI (13.05)
SD (13.06)
WI (13.53)
CO (13.62)*
CA (14.11)
VA (14.50)*
IL (14.80)
 NV (15.09)*
NM (15.92)*
VT (16.87)
UT (17.37)
DE (17.39)
MT (18.24)
NE (18.29)+
ND (18.73)		 IN (21.72)*
HI (36.52)








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Copyright © 2009  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action