During the
pre-primary
period--the year following the mid-term elections--the field of
presidential
candidates takes shape, the race for money and campaign talent unfolds,
and differences on issues between the candidates begin to crystallize.
Launch
With the entry of
former
Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) on Sept. 6, 2007, the field of candidates for
the Democratic and Republican nominations was set, although
there remained the prospect of a major independent candidate.
Many
of the candidates, who had leadership PACs to finance their activities
in 2005-06, set up exploratory committees following the 2006
mid-term
elections, in November and December 2006 and January 2007, although a
few
opted against this intermediate step. [In the 2004 cycle, Gov.
Howard
Dean of Vermont was first to enter, filing papers with the FEC on May
30,
2002 and Sen. Bob Graham of Florida became the ninth candidate, filing
on February 27, 2003; Gen. Wesley Clark was a late entrant on September
17, 2003; see also 2000 summary].
An exploratory
committee
can raise contributions and make expenditures "solely for the purpose
of
determining whether an individual should become a candidate."
Establishing
such a committee also provides time for the candidate and the campaign
team to gear up operations. (Another route, less regulated, is
the
testing-the-waters committee). The exploratory route can also
give
a candidate a double news splash, first with the establishment of the
exploratory
committee and then with the formal announcement. Once an
individual
has established an exploratory committee it is likely, but not certain
that he or she will run.
|
The
Field
of Candidates on the Eve of the Iowa Caucuses
DEMOCRATS
Biden
Clinton
Dodd
Edwards
Kucinich
Obama
Richardson
Vilsack
Gravel
..
|
REPUBLICANS
Brownback
Gilmore
Giuliani
Huckabee
Hunter
McCain
Paul
Romney
Tancredo
F.Thompson
T.Thompson
Cox
|
|
A candidate's formal announcement
speech can set the tone for his or her campaign. In a
symbolic
location, surrounded by family and cheering supporters, the candidate
outlines
the themes that he or she will call upon repeatedly during the course
of
the campaign. In 2008 cycle, however, quite a few of the
candidates
decided to forego the expense and trouble of a formal announcement
event
and simply announced their campaigns in media appearances (for example
Dodd on "Imus in the Morning," Paul on CSPAN's "Washington Journal,"
and
Tancredo on WHO Radio's "Mickelson in the Morning") or web videos.
Oftentimes the
candidate
will do an announcement tour, delivering the same or similar speeches
at
several stops. Thereafter come countless stump speeches to local
Rotary Clubs, to chambers of commerce, to state party conventions, and
to assorted other gatherings in school auditoriums and American Legion
halls around the country.
Building
The contacts and networks
built up during the pre-campaign period provide a starting point for
building
campaign organizations. When the 2006 mid-term elections
concluded,
a large pool of talent became available.
Democrats: Biden
| Clinton
| Dodd
| Edwards
| Kucinich
| Obama
| Richardson
| Vilsack
| Gravel.
Republicans: Brownback
| Gilmore
| Giuliani
| Huckabee
| Hunter
| McCain
| Pataki
| Paul
| Romney
| Tancredo
| F.Thompson
| T.Thompson
|
Cox.
Note to Readers:
Organization
pages are based on information from the campaigns supplemented by news
accounts. They can always be improved. Your input is
welcome.
In addition to their
core
campaign teams, candidates must also build organizations in key states,
lining up support and endorsements from county chairmen and elected
officials.
In Iowa, New Hampshire and a few other states, the campaigns open state
headquarters to better mobilize supporters. To attract money and
talent, a candidate must convince the party activists and donors that
he
or she can wage a winning campaign. Some candidates seek strong
showings
in various straw polls to demonstrate appeal. Major policy
speeches
draw attention. Favorable media coverage, poll results, major
speeches
and other developments all become fodder for campaign newsletters and
updates
as the campaigns seek to show growing support.
Race for Money >
If past presidential
campaigns
are any guide, the major party nominees will be effectively settled by
the end of 2007. Before the first vote is cast in a caucus or
primary,
candidates must first engage in "the money primary." Stan
Huckaby, a Republican financial consultant, notes that "historically
the
person who has raised the most in matchable contributions as of the
last
day of the year prior to the election has always received the
nomination."
Campaign Heats Up
Numerous debates and
forums
have been scheduled. (details)
On April 26, 2007 the first candidate debate took place as the
Democrats
met in Orangeburg, SC; Republicans' first meeting occured May 3 in Simi
Valley, CA. (Democratic and Republican debates planned for early
April in New Hampshire were pushed back to June). Individual
events
rarely prove decisive, in the sense that one candidate clearly
outshines
the others, but a series of strong performances can boost a candidacy,
while gaffes or sub-par performances can undermine a hopeful's
efforts.
The ad campaigns also started. Republican Mitt Romney's campaign
went up with television ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina,
Florida
and Michigan on Feb. 21, 2007, although Duncan Hunter's PAC ran some
earlier
as did longshot John Cox's campaign. Bill Richardson's campaign
became
the first on the Democratic side to run TV ads, going up in Iowa and
New
Hampshire on April 23.
By fall 2007 media and
public
attention turns more and more to Iowa and New Hampshire, where a lucky
few voters will finally have a say. Behind the scenes, the
campaign
must also lay the groundwork for qualifying for the ballot in primary
states.
Each state has its own rules--some are tortuous, others expensive and
others,
like New Hampshire, are relatively straightforward. In November
and
December, filing deadlines start coming up in individual states.
In a vital, but little noticed part of the campaign, work goes on to
line
up full delegate slates, so that if the candidate actually survives the
early contests, he or she will not be knocked out by default in later
states.
IN: I
Hereby Declare...
- Sept.
2007 - Without fanfare the Huckabee for President Exploratory
Committee,
Inc. becomes the Huckabee for President Election Committee, Inc.
- Sept. 6,
2007 - Former
Sen.
Fred Thompson (R-TN) announces his candidacy in a webcast. [transcript]
He also declared he was running on the "Tonight Show" with Jay Leno
broadcast
the evening of Sept. 5.
- Sept.
1, 2007 - Without fanfare the Hillary Clinton for President Exploratory
Committee files with the FEC to become Hillary Clinton for President.
- May 21, 2007
- Gov.
Bill
Richardson (D-NM) announces his candidacy in the Gold Room at
Millennium
Biltmore Hotel in Los Angeles, CA. [prepared
remarks] Jan. 21, 2007 -
Announces
formation of a presidential exploratory committee. [video
statement, press release]
- April 26,
2007 - Former Gov.
Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announces his candidacy in a webcast from
Republican
Party of Iowa headquarters in Des Moines, IA.
[press
release, transcript]Jan.
9, 2007 - Files with the FEC [press
release]. Dec. 19, 2006 - Announces he will explore a
presidential
bid [statement].
- April 25,
2007 - Sen. John
McCain (R-AZ) announces his candidacy at Prescott Park in
Portsmouth,
NH. [prepared
remarks] Feb. 28, 2007 - McCain, in an
appearance on the "Late Show with David Letterman," states, "I am
announcing
that I will be a candidate for president of the United States" and says
he will formally announce in early April 2007. Nov. 16, 2006 -
Files
with the FEC. Nov. 12, 2006 - McCain says on NBC News' "Meet the
Press" that he will establish a presidential exploratory
committee.
- April
12, 2007 - Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)
files
with the FEC to change the name of his committee from Rudy Giuliani
Presidential
Exploratory Committee, Inc. to Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee,
Inc.. Feb.
5, 2007 - Files statement of candidacy with the FEC, followed by an
exclusive
interview on FOX News' Hannity & Colmes. Nov. 20, 2006 -
Files
statement of organization with the FEC. Nov. 10, 2006 - Quietly
files
papers with New York State establishing a presidential exploratory
committee.
- April 4,
2007 - Former
Gov.
Tommy Thompson (R-WI) announces his candidacy in events at Messmer
High School
Athletic Center in
Milwaukee,
WI and 7 Flags Event Center in Clive, IA. [prepared
remarks]. April 1, 2007 -
Appearing
on ABC News' "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" Thompson confirms
he
will run. Dec. 13, 2006 - Files with the FEC to establish
exploratory
committee. Nov. 15, 2006 - In Des Moines, Thompson says he will
form
a presidential exploratory committee. (news reports: "I intend to do so
after the first of the year.")
- April 2, 2007
- Rep. Tom
Tancredo (R-CO) announces his candidacy on on "Mickelson in the
Morning"
at WHO Radio in Des Moines, IA. [statement]
Jan.
16, 2007 - Tancredo announces he will form a presidential exploratory
committee
this week. [press
release]
- Mar. 12,
2007 - Rep.
Ron
Paul (R-TX) announces his candidacy on C-SPAN's "Washington
Journal." Jan.
11, 2007 - Paul files in Texas to establish a presidential exploratory
committee. [source AP]
- Feb. 13,
2007 - Former
Gov.
Mitt Romney (R-MA) announces his candidacy at Henry Ford Museum in
Dearborn, MI. [speech]
Jan.
3, 2007 - Romney files to establish a presidential exploratory
committee.
[press
release]
- Feb. 10,
2007 - Sen.
Barack
Obama (D-IL) announces his candidacy at the Old State Capitol in
Springfield,
IL. [speech]
Jan.
16, 2007 - Obama files with the FEC to establish a presidential
exploratory
committee. [video
statement]
- Jan. 31,
2007 - Sen.
Joe
Biden (D-DE) files with the FEC to establish a presidential
campaign
committee [video
statement, press release].
- Jan. 25,
2007 - Rep.
Duncan
Hunter (R-CA) announces his candidacy at a breakfast fundraiser at
the Spartanburg Marriott at Renaissance Park in Spartanburg, SC.
[speech]
Jan.
12, 2007 - Hunter files with the FEC to establish exploratory
committee.
[press
release] Oct. 30, 2006 - Hunter announces he will
pursue
a presidential exploratory effort. [transcript]
- Jan. 20,
2007 - Sen.
Sam
Brownback (R-KS) announces his candidacy at Heritage Hall in
Topeka,
KS. [transcript]
Dec.
4, 2006 - Brownback files with the Federal Election Commission to
establish
a presidential exploratory committee. [letter,
press
release]
- Jan. 11,
2007 - Sen.
Chris
Dodd (D-CT) announces his candidacy on "Imus in the Morning."
[statement]
- Dec. 28,
2006 - Former
Sen.
John Edwards (D-NC) announces his candidacy in the Ninth Ward of
New
Orleans, LA. [transcript]
- Dec. 12,
2006 - Rep.
Dennis
Kucinich (D-OH) announces his candidacy in the City Council
Committee
Room at Cleveland City Hall in Cleveland, OH. [transcript]
Dec.
11, 2006 - Kucinich says he will announce his candidacy for president
the
next day. [press
release]
- Nov. 30,
2006 - Gov.
Tom
Vilsack (D-IA) announces his candidacy in the Howe Student Activity
Center at Iowa Wesleyan College in Mt. Pleasant, IA. [photos,
transcript] Nov. 9 - Vilsack files
with
the Federal Election Commission to establish a presidential campaign
committee.
[press
release]
- April 17,
2006 - Former Sen.
Mike Gravel (D-AK) announces his candidacy at the National Press
Club
in Washington, DC. [photos,
transcript, interview]
- March 9,
2006 -
Chicago businessman John
Cox (R) announces his candidacy.
|
TESTING:
Exploratory
Phase
- Early
June 2007 - Former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) forms a "testing
the
waters" committee.
- Jan. 28,
2007 - Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) says on NBC News' "Meet
the Press" that he will file with the FEC on Jan. 29 to establish a
presidential
exploratory committee. [press
releases]
- Jan. 21,
2007 - Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) announces formation of a
presidential
exploratory committee. [video
statement, press release]
- Jan. 20,
2007 - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) announces formation
of
a presidential exploratory committee. [video
statement]
- Jan. 16,
2007 - Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) announces he will form a
presidential
exploratory committee this week. [press
release]
- Jan. 16,
2007 - Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) files with the FEC to establish
a presidential exploratory committee. [video
statement]
- Jan. 11,
2007 - Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) files in Texas to establish a
presidential
exploratory committee. [source AP]
- Jan. 7,
2007 - Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) says on NBC News' "Meet the Press"
that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee "before the
month is out." [In fact Biden skips the exploratory phase and
files
to establish a campaign committee on Jan. 31.]
- Jan. 3,
2007 - Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) files to establish a
presidential
exploratory committee. [press
release]
- Dec. 20,
2006 - Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announces he will explore
a presidential bid (reported on Dec. 19, 2006). [statement]
(files with the FEC on Jan. 9, 2007 [press
release])
- Dec. 4,
2006 - Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) files with the Federal
Election
Commission to establish a presidential exploratory
committee.
[letter]
- Dec. 3,
2006 - Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) says on ABC News' "This Week" that
he will establish a presidential exploratory committee. (files
with
the FEC on Dec. 5, 2006)
- Nov. 15,
2006 - In Des Moines, former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) says he
will form a presidential exploratory committee. (news reports: "I
intend
to do so after the first of the year.") (files with the
FEC
on Dec. 13)
- Nov. 12,
2006 - Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) says on NBC News' "Meet the
Press"
that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee. (files
with the FEC on Nov. 16)
- Nov. 10,
2006 - Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) quietly
files
papers with New York State establishing a presidential exploratory
committee.
(files statement of organization with the FEC on Nov. 20; files
statement of candidacy with the FEC on Feb. 5, 2007...followed by an
exclusive
interview on FOX News' Hannity & Colmes).
- Oct. 30,
2006 - Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) announces he
will
pursue a presidential exploratory effort. [transcript]
(files with the FEC on Jan. 12, 2007 [press
release])
|
OUT: Not
this Time
- Sept. 15, 2007 - Gen. Wes Clark (ret.)
announces endorsement of Sen. Clinton. [statement]
- Jan. 24,
2007 - Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) announces he will not pursue a
2008
presidential campaign. [speech
excerpt, e-mail]
- Jan. 16,
2007 - Former Gov. Frank Keating (R-OK) reported by The
Oklahoman.
- Dec. 16,
2006 - Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) issues a statement saying that he
will
not be a candidate for the presidency in 2008. [statement]
Dec. 5, 2006 - Bayh files with the FEC to establish exploratory
committee. [statement]
Dec. 3, 2006 - Bayh says on ABC News' "This Week" that he will
establish
a presidential exploratory committee.
- Dec. 2,
2006 - Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) tells KELOLAND News in
Sioux
Falls, SD that he will not run for president.
- Nov. 29,
2006 - Sen. Bill Frist, M.D. (R-TN) announces that he does not
intend
to run for president in 2008. [statement]
- Nov. 12,
2006 - Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) announces that he will
not
seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. [letter]
- Oct. 12,
2006 - Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) rules out a
presidential
run. [statement]
[reactions]
|
Exit Stage Left
For some candidates, the
months of planning and preparation, hard work and handshaking are not
enough
to make it to the starting line, let alone secure the party's
nomination.
Reality sets in, and it becomes impossible to continue without going
into
debt. On the Republican side, the Iowa Straw Poll continues to
serve
as an important marker. (see Aug.
18, 1999 report). This event, held on Aug. 11, 2007 on the
Iowa
State University campus in Ames, caused former Gov. Tommy Thompson
(R-WI)
to end his campaign and precipated Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)'s
withdrawal
in October. All told five presidential candidates withdrew before
the first votes were cast. Emotions are high, and a few tears may
be shed, as the candidate, surrounded by family and staff, announces
the
end of his or her quest. The speech and the Q and A that may
follow,
offers initial insights into what the candidate feels he or she
accomplished
and why he or she failed to gain more support. The candidate may
also take this opportunity to throw his or her support to one of the
remaining
contenders.
|
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CANDIDATES LINE UP - JUNE 2007
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NEXT
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Copyright
© 2006, 2007, 2008 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action |
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