During the pre-primary period--the year following the mid-term elections--the field of presidential candidates takes shape, the race for money and campaign talent unfolds, and differences on issues between the candidates begin to crystallize.
Debates and Forums
Launch
With the entry of former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) on Sept. 6, 2007, the field of candidates for the Democratic and Republican nominations was set, although there remained the prospect of a major independent candidate.  Many of the candidates, who had leadership PACs to finance their activities in 2005-06, set up exploratory committees following the 2006 mid-term elections, in November and December 2006 and January 2007, although a few opted against this intermediate step.  [In the 2004 cycle, Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont was first to enter, filing papers with the FEC on May 30, 2002 and Sen. Bob Graham of Florida became the ninth candidate, filing on February 27, 2003; Gen. Wesley Clark was a late entrant on September 17, 2003; see also 2000 summary]. 

An exploratory committee can raise contributions and make expenditures "solely for the purpose of determining whether an individual should become a candidate."  Establishing such a committee also provides time for the candidate and the campaign team to gear up operations.  (Another route, less regulated, is the testing-the-waters committee).  The exploratory route can also give a candidate a double news splash, first with the establishment of the exploratory committee and then with the formal announcement.  Once an individual has established an exploratory committee it is likely, but not certain that he or she will run. 

The Field of Candidates on the Eve of the Iowa Caucuses
DEMOCRATS
Biden
Clinton
Dodd
Edwards
Kucinich
Obama
Richardson
Vilsack
Gravel

..

REPUBLICANS
Brownback
Gilmore
Giuliani
Huckabee
Hunter
McCain
Paul
Romney
Tancredo
F.Thompson
T.Thompson
Cox

A candidate's formal announcement speech can set the tone for his or her campaign.  In a symbolic location, surrounded by family and cheering supporters, the candidate outlines the themes that he or she will call upon repeatedly during the course of the campaign.  In 2008 cycle, however, quite a few of the candidates decided to forego the expense and trouble of a formal announcement event and simply announced their campaigns in media appearances (for example Dodd on "Imus in the Morning," Paul on CSPAN's "Washington Journal," and Tancredo on WHO Radio's "Mickelson in the Morning") or web videos.

Oftentimes the candidate will do an announcement tour, delivering the same or similar speeches at several stops.  Thereafter come countless stump speeches to local Rotary Clubs, to chambers of commerce, to state party conventions, and to assorted other gatherings in school auditoriums and American Legion halls around the country.

Building
The contacts and networks built up during the pre-campaign period provide a starting point for building campaign organizations.  When the 2006 mid-term elections concluded, a large pool of talent became available.

Democrats: Biden | Clinton | Dodd | Edwards | Kucinich | Obama | Richardson | Vilsack | Gravel.
Republicans: Brownback | Gilmore | GiulianiHuckabee | Hunter | McCain | Pataki | Paul | Romney | Tancredo | F.Thompson | T.Thompson | Cox.
Note to Readers: Organization pages are based on information from the campaigns supplemented by news accounts.  They can always be improved.  Your input is welcome.

In addition to their core campaign teams, candidates must also build organizations in key states, lining up support and endorsements from county chairmen and elected officials.  In Iowa, New Hampshire and a few other states, the campaigns open state headquarters to better mobilize supporters.  To attract money and talent, a candidate must convince the party activists and donors that he or she can wage a winning campaign.  Some candidates seek strong showings in various straw polls to demonstrate appeal.  Major policy speeches draw attention.  Favorable media coverage, poll results, major speeches and other developments all become fodder for campaign newsletters and updates as the campaigns seek to show growing support.
 

Race for Money  >
If past presidential campaigns are any guide, the major party nominees will be effectively settled by the end of 2007.  Before the first vote is cast in a caucus or primary, candidates must first engage in "the money primary."  Stan Huckaby, a Republican financial consultant, notes that "historically the person who has raised the most in matchable contributions as of the last day of the year prior to the election has always received the nomination."
 

Campaign Heats Up
Numerous debates and forums have been scheduled.  (details)  On April 26, 2007 the first candidate debate took place as the Democrats met in Orangeburg, SC; Republicans' first meeting occured May 3 in Simi Valley, CA.  (Democratic and Republican debates planned for early April in New Hampshire were pushed back to June).  Individual events rarely prove decisive, in the sense that one candidate clearly outshines the others, but a series of strong performances can boost a candidacy, while gaffes or sub-par performances can undermine a hopeful's efforts.  The ad campaigns also started.  Republican Mitt Romney's campaign went up with television ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Michigan on Feb. 21, 2007, although Duncan Hunter's PAC ran some earlier as did longshot John Cox's campaign.  Bill Richardson's campaign became the first on the Democratic side to run TV ads, going up in Iowa and New Hampshire on April 23.

By fall 2007 media and public attention turns more and more to Iowa and New Hampshire, where a lucky few voters will finally have a say.  Behind the scenes, the campaign must also lay the groundwork for qualifying for the ballot in primary states.  Each state has its own rules--some are tortuous, others expensive and others, like New Hampshire, are relatively straightforward.  In November and December, filing deadlines start coming up in individual states.  In a vital, but little noticed part of the campaign, work goes on to line up full delegate slates, so that if the candidate actually survives the early contests, he or she will not be knocked out by default in later states.
 
 

IN: I Hereby Declare...
  • Sept. 2007 - Without fanfare the Huckabee for President Exploratory Committee, Inc. becomes the Huckabee for President Election Committee, Inc. 
  • Sept. 6, 2007 - Former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) announces his candidacy in a webcast.  [transcript]  He also declared he was running on the "Tonight Show" with Jay Leno broadcast the evening of Sept. 5.
  • Sept. 1, 2007 - Without fanfare the Hillary Clinton for President Exploratory Committee files with the FEC to become Hillary Clinton for President.
  • May 21, 2007 - Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) announces his candidacy in the Gold Room at Millennium Biltmore Hotel in Los Angeles, CA.  [prepared remarks Jan. 21, 2007 - Announces formation of a presidential exploratory committee.  [video statement, press release]
  • April 26, 2007 - Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announces his candidacy in a webcast from Republican Party of Iowa headquarters in Des Moines, IA.  [press release, transcript]Jan. 9, 2007 - Files with the FEC [press release].  Dec. 19, 2006 - Announces he will explore a presidential bid [statement]. 
  • April 25, 2007 - Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) announces his candidacy at Prescott Park in Portsmouth, NH.  [prepared remarksFeb. 28, 2007 - McCain, in an appearance on the "Late Show with David Letterman," states, "I am announcing that I will be a candidate for president of the United States" and says he will formally announce in early April 2007.  Nov. 16, 2006 - Files with the FEC.  Nov. 12, 2006 - McCain says on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee. 
  • April 12, 2007 - Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) files with the FEC to change the name of his committee from Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee, Inc. to Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee, Inc.. Feb. 5, 2007 - Files statement of candidacy with the FEC, followed by an exclusive interview on FOX News' Hannity & Colmes.  Nov. 20, 2006 - Files statement of organization with the FEC.  Nov. 10, 2006 - Quietly files papers with New York State establishing a presidential exploratory committee. 
  • April 4, 2007 - Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) announces his candidacy in events at Messmer High School

  • Athletic Center in Milwaukee, WI and 7 Flags Event Center in Clive, IA.  [prepared remarks].  April 1, 2007 - Appearing on ABC News' "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" Thompson confirms he will run.  Dec. 13, 2006 - Files with the FEC to establish exploratory committee.  Nov. 15, 2006 - In Des Moines, Thompson says he will form a presidential exploratory committee. (news reports: "I intend to do so after the first of the year.")
  • April 2, 2007 - Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) announces his candidacy on on "Mickelson in the Morning" at WHO Radio in Des Moines, IA. [statement] Jan. 16, 2007 - Tancredo announces he will form a presidential exploratory committee this week.  [press release]
  • Mar. 12, 2007 - Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) announces his candidacy on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal." Jan. 11, 2007 - Paul files in Texas to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [source AP]
  • Feb. 13, 2007 - Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) announces his candidacy at Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, MI. [speech] Jan. 3, 2007 - Romney files to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [press release]
  • Feb. 10, 2007 - Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) announces his candidacy at the Old State Capitol in Springfield, IL.  [speech] Jan. 16, 2007 - Obama files with the FEC to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [video statement]
  • Jan. 31, 2007 - Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) files with the FEC to establish a presidential campaign committee [video statement, press release].
  • Jan. 25, 2007 - Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) announces his candidacy at a breakfast fundraiser at the Spartanburg Marriott at Renaissance Park in Spartanburg, SC.  [speech] Jan. 12, 2007 - Hunter files with the FEC to establish exploratory committee.  [press release]  Oct. 30, 2006 - Hunter announces he will pursue a presidential exploratory effort.  [transcript
  • Jan. 20, 2007 - Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) announces his candidacy at Heritage Hall in Topeka, KS.  [transcript] Dec. 4, 2006 - Brownback files with the Federal Election Commission to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [letter, press release]
  • Jan. 11, 2007 - Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) announces his candidacy on "Imus in the Morning."  [statement]
  • Dec. 28, 2006 - Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) announces his candidacy in the Ninth Ward of New Orleans, LA.  [transcript]
  • Dec. 12, 2006 - Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) announces his candidacy in the City Council Committee Room at Cleveland City Hall in Cleveland, OH.  [transcript] Dec. 11, 2006 - Kucinich says he will announce his candidacy for president the next day.  [press release]
  • Nov. 30, 2006 - Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) announces his candidacy in the Howe Student Activity Center at Iowa Wesleyan College in Mt. Pleasant, IA.   [photos, transcriptNov. 9 - Vilsack files with the Federal Election Commission to establish a presidential campaign committee.  [press release]
  • April 17, 2006 - Former Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK) announces his candidacy at the National Press Club in Washington, DC.  [photos, transcript, interview]
  • March 9, 2006 - Chicago businessman John Cox (R) announces his candidacy.
TESTING: Exploratory Phase
  • Early June 2007 - Former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) forms a "testing the waters" committee. 
  • Jan. 28, 2007 - Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) says on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that he will file with the FEC on Jan. 29 to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [press releases]
  • Jan. 21, 2007 - Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) announces formation of a presidential exploratory committee.  [video statement, press release]
  • Jan. 20, 2007 - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) announces formation of a presidential exploratory committee.  [video statement]
  • Jan. 16, 2007 - Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) announces he will form a presidential exploratory committee this week.  [press release]
  • Jan. 16, 2007 - Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) files with the FEC to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [video statement]
  • Jan. 11, 2007 - Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) files in Texas to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [source AP]
  • Jan. 7, 2007 - Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) says on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee "before the month is out."  [In fact Biden skips the exploratory phase and files to establish a campaign committee on Jan. 31.]
  • Jan. 3, 2007 - Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) files to establish a presidential exploratory committee.  [press release]
  • Dec. 20, 2006 - Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announces he will explore a presidential bid (reported on Dec. 19, 2006).  [statement]  (files with the FEC on Jan. 9, 2007 [press release])
  • Dec. 4, 2006 - Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) files with the Federal Election Commission to establish a presidential exploratory committee.   [letter]
  • Dec. 3, 2006 - Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) says on ABC News' "This Week" that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee.  (files with the FEC on Dec. 5, 2006)
  • Nov. 15, 2006 - In Des Moines, former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) says he will form a presidential exploratory committee. (news reports: "I intend to do so after the first of the year.")  (files with the FEC on Dec. 13)
  • Nov. 12, 2006 - Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) says on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee.  (files with the FEC on Nov. 16)
  • Nov. 10, 2006 - Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) quietly files papers with New York State establishing a presidential exploratory committee.  (files statement of organization with the FEC on Nov. 20; files statement of candidacy with the FEC on Feb. 5, 2007...followed by an exclusive interview on FOX News' Hannity & Colmes).
  • Oct. 30, 2006 - Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) announces he will pursue a presidential exploratory effort.  [transcript]  (files with the FEC on Jan. 12, 2007 [press release])
OUT: Not this Time
  • Sept. 15, 2007 - Gen. Wes Clark (ret.) announces endorsement of Sen. Clinton. [statement]
  • Jan. 24, 2007 - Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) announces he will not pursue a 2008 presidential campaign. [speech excerpt, e-mail]
  • Jan. 16, 2007 - Former Gov. Frank Keating (R-OK) reported by The Oklahoman
  • Dec. 16, 2006 - Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) issues a statement saying that he will not be a candidate for the presidency in 2008.  [statement]   Dec. 5, 2006 - Bayh files with the FEC to establish exploratory committee.  [statement]  Dec. 3, 2006 - Bayh says on ABC News' "This Week" that he will establish a presidential exploratory committee. 
  • Dec. 2, 2006 - Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) tells KELOLAND News in Sioux Falls, SD that he will not run for president.
  • Nov. 29, 2006 - Sen. Bill Frist, M.D. (R-TN) announces that he does not intend to run for president in 2008.  [statement]
  • Nov. 12, 2006 - Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) announces that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008.  [letter]
  • Oct. 12, 2006 - Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) rules out a presidential run.  [statement] [reactions]

Exit Stage Left
For some candidates, the months of planning and preparation, hard work and handshaking are not enough to make it to the starting line, let alone secure the party's nomination.  Reality sets in, and it becomes impossible to continue without going into debt.  On the Republican side, the Iowa Straw Poll continues to serve as an important marker.  (see Aug. 18, 1999 report).  This event, held on Aug. 11, 2007 on the Iowa State University campus in Ames, caused former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) to end his campaign and precipated Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)'s withdrawal in October.  All told five presidential candidates withdrew before the first votes were cast.  Emotions are high, and a few tears may be shed, as the candidate, surrounded by family and staff, announces the end of his or her quest.  The speech and the Q and A that may follow, offers initial insights into what the candidate feels he or she accomplished and why he or she failed to gain more support.  The candidate may also take this opportunity to throw his or her support to one of the remaining contenders.
 

OUT: Gave it a Try
 




CANDIDATES LINE UP - JUNE 2007
NEXT

 
Copyright © 2006, 2007, 2008  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action