If your television is tuned to cable news as frequently as ours are
here at campaign headquarters, you have seen the pundits say John
McCain and his campaign are done. And, if you've followed this race
since the beginning, this is clearly a song you've heard before. I
wanted to take some time today to give you some insight on the state of
the race as we see it.
An AP poll released this morning revealed a very telling fact: ONE out
of every SEVEN voters is undecided. That means, if 130 million voters
turn out on Tuesday, 18.5 million of them have yet to make up their
mind. With that many votes on the table and the tremendous movement
we've seen in this race, I believe we are in a very competitive
campaign.
Here's why:
All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a
significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern,
he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race
is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270
Electoral votes needed on Election Night.
National
Polls:Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing
by double-digit margins - but by the middle of this week, we were
within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact,
the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2
days this week.
State Polls:
Iowa -
Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days.
We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That
is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days,
trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other
Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.
The Southwest
- It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to
focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New
Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome
challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these
states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become
clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is
now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error -
putting these states within reach.
Colorado
- Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the
early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado.
However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound
in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.
Ohio and
Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and
Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the
two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House
without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning
non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our
position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to
have a very favorable impression of our candidate.
Obama campaign faces tremendous
structural challenges in the final days of this campaign
Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama has
not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He
consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at
the primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day
performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers. If this is
true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on
Election Day.
Early Vote: The Obama campaign has promised that
their early vote and absentee efforts will change the composition of
the electorate. They have sold the press on a story that first time
voters will turn out in droves this election cycle. Again, the facts
undermine their argument. In our analysis of early voting and absentee
votes to date: The composition of the electorate has not changed
significantly and most folks who have voted early are high propensity
voters who would have voted regardless of the high interest in this
campaign.
Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states
if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into
North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing
field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and
trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't
have the votes to win.
The Final Barnstorm
On Monday, we will have a 14 state rally with our candidates
crisscrossing the country trying to turn out our voters and sway the
final undecided voters. Governor Palin will hit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa,
Colorado, Nevada and Alaska in the final day of campaigning, while
Senator McCain will travel from Tampa, Florida, to Virginia, then
Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finish the night in
Prescott, Arizona. The enthusiasm and excitement we generate on Monday
will be the electricity that powers our "Get Out the Vote" efforts on
Tuesday.
On the Ground
Our field organization has tremendous energy and is
out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time in 2004. This week
our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began reaching more
than one million voters per day, and by week's end will have contacted
more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our rate of
voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004. We
have the resources to do the voter contact necessary to support the
surge we are seeing in our polling with old fashioned grassroots
outreach.
On the Airwaves
In the final days of the campaign, our television presence will
be bigger and broader than the Obama campaign's presence. The full
Republican effort - the RNC's Independent Expenditure and the McCain
campaign will out-buy Barack Obama and the Democrats by just about 10
million dollars.
In short: the McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours.
Our grassroots campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a
very powerful way. Our television presence is strong. And, we have a
secret ingredient - A candidate who will never quit and who will never
stop fighting for you and for your families.
In these final hours, Senator McCain and Governor Palin are counting on
you - they are counting on you to knock
on doors, to make
turnout calls, to contact
your friends and neighbors. Get our voters to the polls and help
John McCain fight for your and for our country. This is our last
mission on behalf of John McCain and I have no doubt I can count on
your effort and energy to carry us across the line to victory.