Notes from
2005-06
2005-06 Photos: "Granite State Happenings" |
Defending the Primary
The Democratic National
Committee, after a lengthy process that started following the 2004
campaign
and ran through August 2006, decided to add two additional early
contests
to its 2008 presidential nominating calendar. New Hampshire
political
leaders mounted a spirited
defense of the first-in-the-nation primary throughout the
Democrats'
deliberations. In a July 20, 2006 letter to members of the Rules
and Bylaws Committee, New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch warned, "Placing
another
state’s caucus or primary between Iowa and New Hampshire, or placing
another
state within a week following New Hampshire, could put New Hampshire
and
the DNC on a collision course, resulting in chaos for the nominating
process."
Lynch wrote of New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, "You
should
assume that he will move up New Hampshire’s primary date, perhaps even
ahead of Iowa, if he determines it is necessary to uphold New Hampshire
law." Gardner will set the date of New Hampshire's primary in the
latter part of 2007. Gov. Lynch, in an August 19, 2006 press
release,
announced that he had "received written commitments from 10 potential
Democratic
presidential candidates that they will participate in the New Hampshire
primary on whatever date the Secretary of State sets." Ultimately
a situation could arise where the DNC does not recognize New
Hampshire's
delegates.
Gov.
John Lynch in Nov 30, 2005 letter to DNC Commission on Presidential
Nomination
Timing and Scheduling:
"...New Hampshire will take whatever steps are necessary to preserve its state law and traditional role in the nominating process. "New Hampshire has the first primary because it was the first state to take the presidential nominating process out of smoke-filled backrooms and put the decision directly into the hands of voters. It is a tradition and a responsibility the people of this state take seriously." |
New Hampshire Visits Per Month
2006
11 Republican
prospects
made a total of 37 visits totaling 46 days. Gov.
George
Pataki made the most visits, nine, followed by Gov. Mitt Romney with
eight;
Sen. John McCain tallied four visits; Sen. Bill Frist, former Speaker
Newt
Gingrich, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Gov. Mike Huckabee three each;
and Sen. George Allen, Sen. Sam Brownback, Sen. Chuck Hagel and Rep.
Duncan
Hunter made one visit each. 13 Democratic prospects made
a
total of 47 visits totaling 73 days. Sen. Joe
Biden
led with 8 visits, Sen. John Edwards and Sen. John Kerry made 6 each,
Sen.
Evan Bayh 5, Gov. Bill Richardson and former Gov. Mark Warner 4, Gov.
Tom
Vilsack Sen. Chris Dodd and Gen. Wesley Clark 3, Sen. Russ Feingold 2,
Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. Tom Daschle and Rev. Al Sharpton 1.
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ROMNEY HUCKABEE |
HAGEL ALLEN HUCKABEE |
GINGRICH BROWNBACK PATAKI |
McCAIN |
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HUCKABEE PATAKI FRIST PATAKI |
ROMNEY ROMNEY ROMNEY > |
PATAKI GIULIANI FRIST HUNTER McCAIN GIULIANI |
PATAKI ROMNEY GINGRICH |
GINGRICH ROMNEY |
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SHARPTON |
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RICHARDSON CLARK BAYH |
KERRY |
KERRY CLARK EDWARDS |
WARNER DASCHLE BAYH VILSACK BIDEN BIDEN> |
BIDEN |
EDWARDS WARNER |
BIDEN BIDEN KERRY DODD VILSACK WARNER BAYH RICHARDSON |
DODD KERRY BIDEN CLARK DODD BAYH |
VILSACK > |
BAYH OBAMA RICHARDSON BIDEN EDWARDS |
2005
9 Republican
prospects
made a total of 21 visits totaling 29 days. Gov.
Mitt
Romney made the most visits, four, but his travel during these trips
was
limited. Sen. Bill Frist, Sen. George Allen and Rep. Tom Tancredo
all made three visits; former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Sen. Sam
Brownback
and Gov. George Pataki each made two visits. Gov. Mike Huckabee
made
only one visit, but his schedule was jam-packed; Sen. Chuck Hagel
likewise
made only one visit, but that covered parts of three days. Sen.
John
McCain and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani steered clear of the Granite
State.
8 potential Democratic candidates made a total of 13 visits
totaling 20 days. Sen. John Edwards led all prospects
with
four visits totaling seven days.
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GINGRICH |
ALLEN |
TANCREDO ALLEN |
HUCKABEE |
TANCREDO
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BROWNBACK ALLEN PATAKI |
ROMNEY PATAKI |
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CLARK EDWARDS |
EDWARDS |
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EDWARDS BAYH |
KERRY WARNER |
There are of course many other ways to establish and maintain to contacts with New Hampshirites, such as holding a private meetings outside the Granite State, making phone calls, and sending out holiday (Christmas) cards. This type of activity is largely below the radar screen, although news media occasionally hears of it. For example on August 23, 2006 Hotline On Call reported, "Gov. George Pataki will spend the day with about 20 New Hampshire GOP lawmakers and candidates in Saratoga, New York on Friday."
A presidential hopeful's PAC can earn good will by contributing to New Hampshire candidates or even help by paying for a staffer. As early as summer 2005 Sen. John Edwards' One America Committee covered the cost of Angela Siecker working for the Democratic legislative caucus and Sen. David Gottesman, Sen. John Kerry's Keeping America's Promise PAC covered Geoff Wetrosky working on Manchester Mayor Bob Baines' re-election campaign, and Sen Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriot Fund covered Paula Zellner working on Baines' campaign. Starting in May 2006 former Gov. Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC provided funding for Audra Tafoya to do research and communications work for the New Hampshire Senate Democratic Caucus. On August 15, 2006 Sen. Evan Bayh's All America PAC announced it was deploying 15 graduates of its campaign training program to work as staffers on New Hampshire campaigns.
A Sampling of Early Speeches (2005)
At this stage of the
process
there are no announced candidates, only prospective candidates.
Mainly
they are speaking at events organized by the state party or by county
parties.
To a lesser degree they make appearances in non-political
settings,
for example speaking at a college or university. Note that public
events generally comprise only part of potential candidates' schedules,
which also include various interviews and private meetings.
It is interesting to consider the approaches prospective candidates take and the themes they address in their early or introductory speeches. First off there is usually praise for local officials. Oftentimes they try to establish a connection to New Hampshire. A dash of humor is always a good way to connect to the audience. They discuss the issues of the day and their accomplishments. Another element to consider is the amount of partisan rhetoric; Democrats include greater or lesser degrees of criticism of President Bush, and the Republicans more or less praise. Words of support for the first in the nation New Hampshire primary are a sure way to win applause. Here is a sampling of speeches from 2005; given the different audiences, lengths and dates they are not strictly comparable but they do give a sense of the themes these individuals might develop if they do become candidates.
DEMOCRATS
WARNER
- NH Senate Democratic Caucus lunch in Manchester, Nov. 18.
BAYH
- NH Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner fundraiser in
Manchester,
Oct. 29.
FEINGOLD
- Rockingham County Democrats' first annual Eleanor Roosevelt Covered
Dish
Dinner at Epping, Sept. 30.
CLARK
- Manchester City Democratic Committee's annual Flag Day dinner, June
12.
RICHARDSON
- "Politics and Eggs" breakfast in Bedford, June 7. [non-partisan
event]
EDWARDS
- NH Democratic Party's 100 Club Dinner in Manchester, Feb. 5.
REPUBLICANS
PATAKI
- NH Republican Party Christmas Party Christmas Party in Concord, Dec.
14.
HUCKABEE
- Strafford County Republican Picnic/Pig Roast in Dover, Aug. 27.
ALLEN
- NH Federation of Republican Women's Lilac Luncheon in Manchester,
June
25.
ROMNEY
- NH Federation of Republican Women's Lilac Dinner in Manchester, June
3.
HAGEL
- "Politics and Eggs" breakfast in Bedford, May 4. [non-partisan
event]
FRIST
- Manchester Republican Committee Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, March 5.
-Americans for Dr. Rice ran a TV ad on WMUR-TV in NH on Sept. 27, 2005 during the premiere of ABC's "Commander in Chief." Americans for Rice supplemented the $4,000 buy with $1,000 on radio ads promoting the show.
-On Aug. 29, 2005 the Club for Growth began running TV ads "encouraging Death Tax repeal in targeted states across the U.S. One of the ads tells New Hampshire viewers that Arizona Sen. John McCain wants to keep the Death Tax. Other ads are running in Montana, Washington, North Dakota and Oregon..."
Also note:
On July 27, 2005 StemPAC
announced plans to run an ad in NH targeting Sen. Bill Frist for "his
obstructionist
position on stem cell research.” The ad was supposed to start
running
on July 28. As soon as Frist made his announcement of his new
position
on the morning of July 29, StemPAC started pulling the ad.
StemPAC
founder John Hlinko states, "It is possible that it may have ran
Thursday
night on some of the cable stations, but the far larger part of the buy
had definitely not yet begun." Hlinko added, "But the impending
ad
was covered for sure in Hotline on Wed and Thurs, as well as National
Journal.
So, suffice to say, even if it hadn't run, the word was out for sure
among
the inside the beltway community, and we assume -- Senator Frist's
office."
Mayoral Race
Draws
Attention
Seeking re-election
on Nov. 8, 2005, two-term Manchester Mayor Bob Baines (D) faced
Alderman
Frank Guinta (R). Gov. Pataki campaigned with Frank Guinta.
Sens. Feingold, Bayh, Biden, and Kerry appeared with Baines. Guinta won
in an upset.
Lining Up Squarely Behind New Hampshire
First
question at the Rockingham County Democrats' First Annual Eleanor
Roosevelt
Covered Dish Dinner in Epping, NH on Sept. 30, 2005:
Gary Patton: Now Senator Feingold, if you know anything about New Hampshire, you can predict what the first question is going to be. [laughter]. If you decide to run for president, are you committed to the [audience joins in] FIRST IN THE NATION NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY? [laughter, applause]. Sen. Feingold: I tell you I think one of the most wonderful things in American politics is what you do here having the first primary. We like to talk about Wisconsin being a laboratory of democracy. When it comes to presidential politics this is the laboratory for democracy and I can't imagine a scenario where we'd want to change that. Of course the first primary should be in New Hampshire. [applause]. Gary Patton: Okay, put away the tar and feathers, folks... |
Sen.
Chuck Hagel's opening comment to Politics & Eggs Breakfast in
Bedford,
NH on May 4, 2005:
Sen. Hagel: It is true I took another difficult stand--tough position--straight off the top supporting the New Hampshire primary as first in the nation. That's my trademark. Handle the big issues right up front. [laughter]. I did wrestle with it, but I finally came down on what I thought was right for America [laughter] and the world really. [laughter]. I think maybe even the universe." |
Gov.
George Pataki at NH Republican Party Christmas Party in Concord, NH on
Dec. 14, 2005:
Gov. Pataki: We understand the importance of our American political system and the fact that the New Hampshire primary has to be number one and has to be undiminished in its importance. [cheers, applause]. Let us fight to keep that, and let the Democrats say no. [laughter]. |
Gov.
Bill Richardson at Politics & Eggs Breakfast in Bedford, NH on June
, 2005:
Gov. Richardson: ...it came up early on about New Hampshire being first or whatever in the primary system. There's a debate on that issue. I hope to talk to you a little bit about it a little later, but being from New Mexico I want you to know that I believe very strongly in the idea of a Western primary. And I'm not going to compromise on this. Here's my position. You might not agree, but it seems to me only fair that the people of Keene have as much voice as the people of Manchester. [laughter, applause]. later...
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Gov.
Mark Warner at NH Senate Democratic Caucus Lunch in Manchester, NH on
Nov.
18, 2005:
Gov. Warner: ... it is a great honor for me to be here in New Hampshire, the state that has always had and should always have the first primary in the nation. [applause]. Because the one thing I think I figured out not only here but when I visited Iowa a couple of times on NGA business during the summer, is there is a special, and I see it here today, a special sense of stewardship and responsibility and I thank you for that stewardship, and I look forward to making sure that we continue this conversation. |